Friday, August 3, 2012

Has 2012 Really Been That Unpredictable?

When romped to victory in the season opening Australian Grand Prix, and followed it up by locking out the front row with his teammate in Malaysia, it looked like were the team to beat.

However, an early pit-stop saw the Briton out of position in the lower midfield and unable to run at his natural pace. He found it impossible to generate the temperature required to get the 2012 spec tyres working, meanwhile at the front a classic battle between and the chasing of was brewing.

The Mexican was easily the fastest man on the circuit, lap after lap he reeled in the double World Champion then, at the critical moment, as the tyres had given their best pitted the lead car and Sauber failed to react. Two more laps on old rubber and all the hard work was undone. No matter, within a handful of corners the sector times told us the battle was back on, the tension built as we began to believe something special was about to happen. Then moments after Perez received a radio message telling him “we need this position” with the Spaniard in striking distance he ran wide, and with no time left to mount another attack, Alonso won. Button limped home fourteenth.

Several truths were revealed that day. I am a staunch supporter of the DRS concept, but it was proof that overtaking is not a pre-requisite for a classic Grand Prix, I for one had no hesitation in voting Malaysia the most exciting race of the year in the recent F1FanCast poll.

More significantly we learnt that temperature was to be the critical tyre management skill of 2012. As each of the following five races produced different winners many began to claim that this years ’s were making the season an unpredictable lottery.

I never bought into that. In fact as the season progressed I was struck by how predictable things were becoming, yes the results were spread among various teams and drivers, but the method was always the same: qualify on pole, manage your tyres, win the race. have been the team with the most consistent race pace but are yet to claim a victory.

So why is that? The competitive nature of the field has certainly been a factor, but even that is a result of the real reason for this fantastic season shaping up the way it has. At Silverstone last year off throttle blowing of the rear diffuser was banned for one race, robbed of this powerful toy that enabled near optimal under body aerodynamic performance at all times the previously dominant teams were not so powerful.

Blown diffusers were banned entirely for this year, and while DRS is still doing it’s job in that a faster car no longer gets stuck behind a much slower one, the great thing about under body aero is it is less affected by the car in front than downforce generated by the wings, remember the old line that catching is one thing passing is another? Witness Raikkonen chasing down Vettel in Bahrain and Hamilton in Hungary, unable to do anything about them when he got there.

Maldonado did allow Alonso to get ahead of him in Barcelona, but ’ superior pit strategy meant he was never really compromised by that, coming through to take a popular win for the team, another memorable race in this season of many.

Well resourced teams can usually claw back from a slow start. Few have deeper pockets than , and Mark Webber’s upturn in form including wins in Monaco and Britain appeared to indicate the team moving forward. But several rule clarifications by the FIA have forced the team to make modifications to the car most recently a change to the throttle map.

How pleasing then that in this season where no driver can rely on a car advantage from one race to the next, Mr Relentless himself sits atop the points standings. Alonso has been mighty this year, it would be bold to make predictions with 225 points still on offer but…

We’re always keen to hear your thoughts. Comment below to have your voice heard

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Formula1Fancast/~3/ckR3LpVAGQA/has-2012-really-been-that-unpredictable

Giulio Cabianca Phil Cade Alex Caffi John CampbellJones Adri·n Campos

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